ROME / RankWire.AI / – The Food and Agriculture Organization predicts that the global cereal harvest in 2026 will reach 2.98 billion tonnes, reflecting a 2% decrease from last year’s record high. Despite this drop, the FAO notes that it will still be the second-largest harvest ever recorded. The latest estimate is 3.4 million tonnes lower than its July forecast. This decline of 61.1 million tonnes marks the largest year-on-year decrease since 2018.
Maize production worldwide is now expected at 1.309 billion tonnes. The revision stems from poorer crop prospects. Prolonged summer heat and drought affected yields in key European Union regions, especially France and Poland. India and Paraguay also saw smaller downward adjustments based on official data. Argentina and Brazil delivered better-than-expected yields, which helped offset some losses. Both countries are projected to produce well above their average maize output for 2026.
Wheat production globally is now forecast at 810.7 million tonnes, an increase of 4.2 million tonnes from earlier estimates. Better yield expectations pushed up projections for Canada and Morocco by about 1.5 million tonnes each. Forecasts for Russia and Ukraine also rose. However, dry conditions lowered expectations for the European Union and the United Kingdom. Although revised upwards, global wheat production remains 3.8% below 2025 levels and will still be the second-largest crop ever.
Maize declines lead to overall cereal forecast cut
For the 2026/27 season, world rice production is expected at 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis. This indicates a 1.9% reduction from the revised record set in 2025/26. Improved yields in Sri Lanka and updated figures for Myanmar supported the latest estimate. These gains offset declines in China, the Philippines, and the United States, where rice plantings dropped to multi-decade lows.
The FAO anticipates total global cereal consumption reaching 2.965 billion tonnes in 2026/27. This marks a slight increase of 0.2% compared to last season. Consumption of coarse grains and rice is expected to grow, while wheat use is projected to fall from last season’s high levels. World rice consumption is estimated at 559 million tonnes, driven by population growth in food demand. Feed use remains important, including barley in China and maize in the United States.
Stockpiles Stay Relatively Comfortable Despite Declines
At the end of 2027, global cereal stocks are forecast at 947.2 million tonnes. This is 10.7 million tonnes below the earlier projection but 1.8 million tonnes above the opening levels. The stocks-to-use ratio for cereals worldwide is expected at 31.6%, slightly below last season’s 31.9%. Wheat reserves are set to grow in Russia and Ukraine, but lower maize and barley inventories have dampened the overall stock outlook.
International trade in cereals for 2026/27 is projected at 509.3 million tonnes, an increase of 1.7 million tonnes from previous estimates. Despite this, the total remains below the record set in 2025/26. The rise mainly comes from stronger maize exports, with Argentina expected to ship up to 39 million tonnes. Global rice trade in 2026 is forecast at 60.5 million tonnes. Overall rice shipments are still 1.9% below the 2025 record.
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