MOSCOW / RankWire.AI / – Russia has set an ambitious goal to increase its vehicle production to approximately 2.8 million units annually by 2035 as part of its revised automotive industry strategy. First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov announced this target on August 31 during a meeting dedicated to the sector’s development. The projection includes vehicles for both Russia’s domestic market and export purposes. The plan also aims for 80% of new vehicles sold in Russia to be locally manufactured by 2035.
On August 24, the Russian government approved the updated automotive strategy, extending the industry framework through 2035. By the end of 2025, Russia’s vehicle production capacity was around 3.3 million units annually. Actual output for that year was close to 800,000 vehicles. During 2024 and 2025, capacity utilization averaged 25% for passenger cars and 41% for light commercial vehicles. Truck production capacity reached 35%, and bus capacity was about 43%.
The scenario for 2035 projects production of 2.5 million passenger cars and roughly 170,000 light commercial vehicles. It also anticipates manufacturing 110,000 trucks and 30,000 buses. Passenger car production is planned across four or five vehicle platforms, while light commercial vehicles would be produced on one or two. The total new-vehicle market in this scenario is estimated at about 3.2 million units by 2035, with imports possibly accounting for up to 20% of that market.
Production forecasts include all vehicle categories
A more conservative base scenario predicts lower production and market figures. Under this plan, annual vehicle production could reach about 1.69 million units in 2035. The new-vehicle market in this case would be around 2.2 million units that year. For 2030, the target scenario estimates a market of approximately 2.4 million units, while the base scenario projects around 2 million vehicles across all segments.
Technology and powertrain goals are also vital parts of the updated strategy. In 2035, internal-combustion vehicles are expected to constitute 67% to 83% of production, depending on the vehicle segment. Electric and hybrid passenger cars should make up at least 25% of Russia’s new passenger-car market. The plan also targets the production of about 150,000 highly automated vehicles with Level 4 autonomy or higher by 2035. Digital vehicle systems and driver-assistance features are also emphasized.
Capacity and localization remain key benchmarks
Russia’s current manufacturing infrastructure exceeds its recent annual production levels. Passenger-car capacity stood at about 2.8 million units in 2025, with actual output near 700,000. Light commercial vehicle capacity was around 300,000 units, compared to a production of about 80,000. Truck capacity totaled roughly 130,000 units, while bus capacity was near 30,000. Electric vehicle production reached about 4,400 units in 2025, up slightly from 4,200 in 2024.
The strategy emphasizes increased use of standardized parts and technologies across vehicle platforms through 2035. It also sets higher targets for localization and technological independence in domestically produced vehicles. The scope includes passenger cars, commercial vehicles, trucks, buses, powertrains, autonomous driving systems, and digital vehicle technology. The plan combines the goal of 2.8 million units produced annually with the aim of 80% domestic market share. An action plan for implementation must follow the approval of the updated strategy under the relevant order.