MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – Russia has established a new goal to produce 662 million tonnes of coal annually by 2050. This target is part of a recently approved industry development plan. In 2024, coal output was approximately 443 million tonnes. The Russian government ratified the plan via Order No. 2606-r on September 22, setting strategic goals for production, exports, and industry growth.
The plan presents four potential routes for the coal sector through 2050. Under the main scenario, production would reach 530.1 million tonnes in 2030, and 595.2 million tonnes in 2036. It then would expand to 662 million tonnes by 2050. The alternative scenarios project lower levels, from 318.9 million tonnes under stress conditions to 586.4 million tonnes in inertial scenarios.
Alongside production, export targets are also set. The main scenario envisions coal exports at 266.7 million tonnes by 2030. Exports are expected to increase to 320.2 million tonnes in 2036 and 350.1 million tonnes by 2050. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak highlighted that Russian coal exports grew 7.2% in the first eight months of 2026. The programme addresses both domestic consumption and international markets.
Production and export goals
The government’s plan emphasizes maintaining current mining capacities and expanding coal resources. It promotes a larger role for coal-producing regions in Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East. These regions contributed 48.3% of national production in 2024. By 2050, their share could rise to between 53.9% and 56.7%. Russia reports over 273 billion tonnes of explored coal reserves.
The plan also includes targets for coal processing and extraction methods. In 2024, processed coal, excluding lignite, made up 58.9% of production. The goal is to increase this figure to between 74% and 76% by 2050. Open-pit mining accounted for 78.4% of output in 2024. The long-term objectives aim to raise this share to between 82% and 85%. The plan also includes measures for productivity, technology, safety, and environmental standards.
Coal development plan extends to 2050
Russia will implement the plan in three phases. The first phase ends in 2030, focusing on increasing production and supporting the industry. The second phase runs from 2031 to 2036, emphasizing coal utilization, processing technology, and regional logistics. The third phase spans from 2037 to 2050. The Energy Ministry will oversee progress, working with federal and regional authorities and other organizations. It will submit annual reports to the Economic Development Ministry as required by government directives.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced the new programme during a government session on September 21. This plan replaces the previous coal industry programme through 2035, approved in 2020. Novak estimated that by 2050, the sector’s gross value added could increase sixfold. He also mentioned that the overall multiplier effect might reach nearly 10 trillion roubles. The target of 662 million tonnes remains a scenario, not a guaranteed forecast, in the plan.