BRUSSELS, BELGIUM / RankWire.AI / – In 2026, higher road fuel prices are projected to add an estimated €53 billion to European Union transportation expenses. The estimate was published by Transport & Environment on September 23, following an analysis of 28 weeks through September 6. The Brussels-based organization compared fuel expenditures with the same period last year and made adjustments for inflation. Diesel made up about €40 billion of this extra cost. The calculation includes spending on diesel and petrol related to road transport.
T&E estimated that the rise in fuel prices increased EU road transport costs by an average of €270 million daily. Of this, diesel contributed roughly €203 million, and petrol about €67 million. The increase is linked to tighter refined-fuel supplies caused by the Middle East conflict and outages at Russian refineries. These issues widened the gap between crude oil prices and refined products, especially diesel. Diesel and gasoil account for approximately 43% of petroleum products used in the EU by volume.
The European Commission has also reported notable volatility in crude oil and refined-product markets, especially for diesel and jet fuel. Its Oil Coordination Group stated on September 8 that the EU currently faces no immediate oil supply issues. Increased refinery output and alternative global supplies continue to meet demand. Additionally, emergency and commercial oil stocks remain sufficient. Geopolitical uncertainties are still driving significant price fluctuations across global oil and petroleum markets.
Diesel Price Increases Impact Drivers and Freight Companies
For drivers, T&E estimated that the average EU diesel car owner spent about €142 more during the study period. By September 14, the group calculated a €30 premium on a 50-litre diesel fill-up compared to pre-conflict prices. Long-haul trucks in Germany faced an average weekly extra fuel cost of around €236. The analysis states Europe has approximately 6.2 million trucks on its roads. Higher diesel prices also affected freight operators and other commercial fuel users.
Diesel remains vital for EU road transport and logistics. T&E reported that in 2024, 77% of the bloc’s diesel and gasoil consumption was for road transport. Eurostat data shows that gas and diesel supplied 63.2% of road transport energy that year. Motor gasoline made up 26.9%, while renewables and biofuels contributed 6.2%. Electricity accounted for just 0.7%. Diesel and gasoline alone supplied 90.1% of the energy used for road transport in 2024.
EU Fuel Price Data Under Ongoing Review
On September 24, the European Commission updated its Weekly Oil Bulletin with recent consumer petroleum prices from EU nations. The bulletin tracks weekly price changes with and without taxes and maintains a historical series dating back to 2005. This update came after the T&E study period ended on September 6. The Commission gathers national price data and releases regular comparative reports across member states. Its September 8 supply assessment highlighted diesel and jet fuel as products experiencing considerable price volatility.
The €53 billion figure from T&E remains an estimate rather than an official EU figure. It calculates additional road fuel expenditure over the 28-week comparison period in 2026. The report details the impact on passenger vehicles and commercial transport, with diesel accounting for most of the projected increase. T&E advocates for measures to cut diesel demand and promote vehicle electrification. Meanwhile, official EU data continues to monitor fuel prices, supply conditions, and petroleum consumption throughout the bloc.