GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – World Trade Organization has increased its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2026 to 3.9 percent, up from the 1.9 percent prediction made in March. The organization attributes this optimistic revision to stronger trade in the first half of the year, supply chain adjustments, and increased investment in artificial intelligence. Despite significant disruptions in energy, transport, and fertilizer markets, merchandise trade volume rose 3.5 percent during the first six months of 2026. The WTO now expects merchandise trade to expand by 4.1 percent in 2027.
Demand driven by artificial intelligence played a key role in merchandise trade growth during this period. Goods enabling AI, such as semiconductors and servers, made up 47 percent of the total global trade increase. Trade in these products surged 67 percent compared to the previous year. The WTO also projects global investment in AI infrastructure to grow by at least 30 percent in 2026. Solid demand for computing hardware supported trade, even as other sectors faced challenges caused by conflicts and transportation issues.
Supply chains worldwide also adapted to pressures in major commodity and shipping markets. In the Middle East, crude oil exports declined by around 24 percent during the first half of 2026. Exports of liquefied natural gas from the region dropped 47 percent over the same period. However, increased shipments from alternative suppliers helped limit the overall decline in crude oil exports to about 6 percent. Global LNG exports fell just 1 percent. Meanwhile, worldwide container throughput rose by 3.9 percent through July, reflecting trade rerouting through alternative ports and routes.
AI-enabled goods bolster global merchandise trade
This more positive outlook for goods contrasts with weaker expectations for commercial services. The WTO lowered its 2026 growth forecast for services trade volume from 4.8 percent in March to 3.3 percent. Disruptions in the Middle East affected transport and international travel. In the second quarter, international tourist arrivals decreased by 0.8 percent. For the first half of 2026, arrivals were only 0.4 percent higher overall. Growth in travel-related spending also slowed sharply between the first and second quarters.
Other service sectors performed better despite challenges in travel and transport. Computer services exports increased by 18 percent in the first quarter compared to last year. The WTO estimates second-quarter growth at 12 percent. Exports of financial services grew 14 percent year-on-year in the same period. The WTO forecasts a 6.4 percent rise in commercial services trade volume in 2027. It also predicts global GDP growth of 2.6 percent in 2026 and 2.9 percent in 2027.
Trade growth varies significantly across regions
The WTO’s regional trade forecasts reveal significant differences across the globe. Asia is expected to lead with a 9.9 percent increase in merchandise exports in 2026. North America is forecast to grow by 5.7 percent, and Africa by 5.6 percent. South America is projected to see a 3.4 percent rise. Europe is likely to experience a slight decline of 0.1 percent. The Middle East faces the largest contraction, with exports expected to fall 17.2 percent during the year.
Import growth also varies sharply between regions in the latest outlook. Asia is projected to see a 9.5 percent increase in merchandise imports, while Africa’s imports are expected to grow by 8.9 percent. North American imports are forecast to rise by 1.4 percent, and Europe by 0.5 percent. The Middle East is expected to see a 15.4 percent decrease in merchandise imports. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala noted that these figures demonstrate trade resilience, but also highlight uneven exposure to economic and geopolitical shocks.